When Predictions Fail: Crash Course Statistics #43

This When Predictions Fail: Crash Course Statistics #43 video also includes:

The world relies on statistics for important predictions like earthquakes, volcano eruptions, and winners of presidential elections. Examine some popular failed predictions and identify their flaws while watching the 43rd installment of a larger statistics series. Whether it is too little data or a bias in the study, realizing the origin of the flaws may minimize them in the future.

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CCSS: Adaptable
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Instructional Ideas
  • Have learners compare and contrast successful and unsuccessful historical predictions
  • Following the video, ask students to develop a strategy to make a specific prediction such as the winner of a student council election
Classroom Considerations
  • Requires a solid understanding of basic probability calculations
  • This resource is only available on an unencrypted HTTP website. It should be fine for general use, but don’t use it to share any personally identifiable information
  • Uses historical predictions as the basis for video content
  • Emphasizes the calculations as well what they represent
  • None