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\nWhat is a Black Swan?\n

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\nThe Black Swan is a book about risk, by polymath, Nassim Nicolas Taleb.Black Swans risks that meet 3 criteria1. Outlier - not expected from previous experience2. Extreme impact3. Explainable after the factYou can think of a black swan...\nThe Black Swan is a book about risk, by polymath, Nassim Nicolas Taleb.

Black Swans risks that meet 3 criteria
1. Outlier - not expected from previous experience
2. Extreme impact
3. Explainable after the fact

You can think of a black swan event as an Unknown Unknown.

However, we do believe we could have predicted it… with hindsight

Taleb gets the name, Black Swan, from a quote from Juvenal:
\"rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno\"
(\"a rare bird in the lands and very much like a black swan\")

Black swan events arise from the limitations of our knowledge. We need to understand this, as part of our understanding of risk management.

Taleb also identifies:
- Grey Swans
Known Unknowns
- White Swans
... such an event has a major effect, but is compatible with statistical properties - it was a Known-Known with low but finite likelihood - indeed some may predict it with high levels of precision.\n
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Media Length
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5:56
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Grade
10th - Higher Ed
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Subjects
STEM
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Media Type
Instructional Videos
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Source:
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\nOnline PM Courses\n\n
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Date
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2020
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Language
English
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Audiences
For Teacher Use
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Fine Print: Educational Use
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Concepts

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consequences, probability, risks
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what is a black swan, black swan, rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno, grey swans, black swan theory explained, black swan theory, black swan event, black swan events, risk, risk management, project, project management, taleb, nassim nicholas taleb, known unknowns, unknown unknowns, known knowns, grey swan, whaite swan, black swans, white swans, rara avis, onlinepmcourses, mike clayton, nassim taleb, nassim taleb black swan, black swan summary, ancient europeans, global pandemic, coronavirus pandemic, act quickly, accurately predict, swans, gaps, knowns, white, dollars, unknowns, predict, knowledge, predicted, projects, likelihood, happen, events, expected, impact, happened, benefit, hindsight
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