{"page":"\u003clink rel=\"stylesheet\" href=\"https://lessonplanet.com/assets/packs/css/resources-572d6a42.css\" /\u003e\n\u003clink rel=\"stylesheet\" href=\"https://lessonplanet.com/assets/packs/css/lp_boclips_stylesheets-f4d0de30.css\" media=\"all\" /\u003e\n\u003cdiv data-title='It\u0026#39;ll Never Fly: Beat Confirmation Bias' data-url='/boclips/videos/65d5c6afab6e113974cae52a' data-video-url='/boclips/videos/65d5c6afab6e113974cae52a' id='bo_player_modal'\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='boclips-resource-page modal-dialog panel-container'\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='react-notifications-root'\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='rp-header'\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='rp-type'\u003e\n\u003ci aria-hidden='true' class='fai fa-regular fa-circle-play'\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\nVideo\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003ch1 class='rp-title' id='video-title'\u003e\nIt\u0026#39;ll Never Fly: Beat Confirmation Bias\n\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='rp-actions'\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='mr-1'\u003e\n\u003ca class=\"btn btn-success\" data-posthog-event=\"Signup: LP Signup Activity\" data-posthog-location=\"body_link_boclips\" data-remote=\"true\" href=\"/subscription/new\"\u003e\u003cspan\u003e\u003cspan\u003eGet Free Access\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan class=\"\"\u003e for 10 Days\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan\u003e!\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/a\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='rp-body'\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='rp-info'\u003e\n\u003cdiv aria-label='Hide resource details' class='rp-hide-info' role='button' tabindex='0'\u003e\u0026times;\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003ci aria-label='Expand resource details' class='rp-expand-info fai fa-solid fa-up-right-and-down-left-from-center' role='button' tabindex='0'\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\n\u003ci aria-label='Compress resource details' class='rp-compress-info fai fa-solid fa-down-left-and-up-right-to-center' role='button' tabindex='0'\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='rp-rating'\u003e\n\u003cspan class='resource-pool'\u003e\n\u003cspan class='pool-label'\u003ePublisher:\u003c/span\u003e\n\u003cspan class='pool-name'\u003e\n\u003cspan class='text'\u003e\u003ca data-publisher-id=\"30356011\" href=\"/search?publisher_ids%5B%5D=30356011\"\u003eCurated Video\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\n\u003c/span\u003e\n\u003c/span\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='rp-description'\u003e\n\u003cspan class='short-description'\u003eIt'll Never Fly' How often have you heard words like that at the start of your project? Or maybe you've heard yourself saying them. If so, you're in danger of 'Confirmation Bias'.If you've ever said 'it'll never fly', you're in good...\u003c/span\u003e\n\u003cspan class='full-description hide'\u003eIt'll Never Fly' How often have you heard words like that at the start of your project? Or maybe you've heard yourself saying them. If so, you're in danger of 'Confirmation Bias'.\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003eIf you've ever said 'it'll never fly', you're in good company.\u003cbr/\u003eLord Kelvin was one of the late 19th century's pre-eminent physicists. He announced that: 'heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible'\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003eThe absence of evidence is not the same as evidence of absence. Happily, the Wright brothers weren't aware of him. Or perhaps they didn't credit his pronouncement.\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003eWhat about Project Management?\u003cbr/\u003eAll this raises a number of themes that project managers should be aware of.\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e1. Testing prototypes and running pilot programs are part of the discovery process. We should make more use of them.\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e2. Unforeseen events often disrupt our projects. Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls them 'Black Swan events' (   • What is a Black Swan?  ). We could equally call them 'Flying Machine events'.\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e3. Too often, project managers compile status reports based on what they know. Or they use data gathering to 'evidence' their executive summary. Instead, you should always start with an analysis of the data, and develop a fresh summary. That reduces the risk of confirmation bias.\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e4. Assumptions can be fatal. We think we know something and become complacent in our knowledge. It's our duty to check.\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003eFrom Failure to Crisis\u003cbr/\u003eOften, we talk about sources of project failure. But how do project failures become crises? Usually when unaddressed causes of failure are accompanied by over-confidence.\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003eAnd who tends to be the most over-confident?\u003cbr/\u003ePhilip Tetlock found the answer to this, through his research. The answer is shocking: experts.\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003eHow does Tetlock - now an expert in the science of forecasting - suggest we overcome this? You need to overcome your sense of 'being an expert'. You need to continually go back and learn anew, challenge your knowledge, and widen your perspective.\u003c/span\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='action-container flex justify-between'\u003e\n\u003cbutton aria-expanded='false' aria-label='Read more description' class='rp-full-description' type='button'\u003e\n\u003ci class='fai fa-solid fa-align-left'\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\n\u003cspan id='read_more'\u003eRead More\u003c/span\u003e\n\u003c/button\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='rp-report'\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv aria-labelledby='resource-details-heading' class='rp-info-section'\u003e\n\u003ch2 class='title' id='resource-details-heading'\u003eResource Details\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='rp-resource-details clearfix'\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='detail'\u003e\n\u003cdl\u003e\n\u003cdt\u003eCurator Rating\u003c/dt\u003e\n\u003cdd\u003e\u003cspan class=\"star-rating\" aria-label=\"4.0 out of 5 stars\" role=\"img\"\u003e\u003ci class=\"fa-solid fa-star text-action\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\u003ci class=\"fa-solid fa-star text-action\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\u003ci class=\"fa-solid fa-star text-action\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\u003ci class=\"fa-solid fa-star text-action\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\u003ci class=\"fa-regular fa-star text-action\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/dd\u003e\n\u003c/dl\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='detail'\u003e\n\u003cdl\u003e\n\u003cdt class=\"educator-rating-title\"\u003eEducator Rating\u003c/dt\u003e\u003cdd\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"educator-rating-details\" data-path=\"/educator_ratings/rrp_data?resourceable_id=87460335\u0026amp;resourceable_type=Boclips%3A%3AVideoMetadata\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"not-yet-rated\"\u003eNot yet Rated\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/dd\u003e\n\u003c/dl\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='detail'\u003e\n\u003cdl\u003e\n\u003cdt\u003eMedia Length\u003c/dt\u003e\n\u003cdd\u003e5:23\u003c/dd\u003e\n\u003c/dl\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='detail'\u003e\n\u003cdl\u003e\n\u003cdt\u003eGrade\u003c/dt\u003e\u003cdd title=\"Grade\"\u003e10th - Higher Ed\u003c/dd\u003e\n\u003c/dl\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='detail'\u003e\n\u003cdl\u003e\n\u003cdt\u003eSubjects\u003c/dt\u003e\u003cdd\u003e\u003cspan\u003e\u003ca href=\"/search?keywords=engineering+and+technology\u0026amp;page=18\u0026amp;search_tab_id=1\u0026amp;subject_ids%5B%5D=1319782\"\u003eCareer \u0026amp; Technical Education\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/dd\u003e\u003cdd class=\"text-muted\"\u003e\u003ci class=\"fa-solid fa-lock mr5\"\u003e\u003c/i\u003e1 more...\u003c/dd\u003e\n\u003c/dl\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='detail'\u003e\n\u003cdl\u003e\n\u003cdt\u003eMedia Type\u003c/dt\u003e\u003cdd\u003e\u003cspan\u003e\u003ca href=\"/search?keywords=engineering+and+technology\u0026amp;page=18\u0026amp;search_tab_id=2\u0026amp;type_ids%5B%5D=4543647\"\u003eInstructional Videos\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/dd\u003e\n\u003c/dl\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='detail'\u003e\n\u003cdl\u003e\n\u003cdt\u003eSource:\u003c/dt\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='preview-source' data-animation='true' data-boundary='.rp-info' data-container='.rp-resource-details' data-html='false' data-title='Online PM Courses gives you clear, practical Project Management knowledge, that is easy to understand and apply. But Online PM Courses is not just a set of training videos. It is a program that will help you transform yourself into the Project Manager you want to be. To help you do this, we are building the most comprehensive portfolio of Project Management self-development resources on the web.' data-trigger='hover focus'\u003e\n\u003cspan\u003eOnline PM Courses\u003c/span\u003e\n\u003ci aria-hidden='true' class='fa-solid fa-circle-info channel-tooltip-icon' id='channel-tooltip'\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/dl\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='detail'\u003e\n\u003cdl\u003e\n\u003cdt\u003eDate\u003c/dt\u003e\n\u003cdd\u003e2020\u003c/dd\u003e\n\u003c/dl\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='detail'\u003e\n\u003cdl\u003e\n\u003ci aria-hidden='true' class='fai fa-solid fa-language'\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\n\u003cdt\u003eLanguage\u003c/dt\u003e\u003cdd\u003eEnglish\u003c/dd\u003e\n\u003c/dl\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='detail'\u003e\n\u003cdl\u003e\n\u003cdt\u003eAudiences\u003c/dt\u003e\u003cdd\u003e\u003cspan\u003e\u003ca href=\"/search?audience_ids%5B%5D=371079\u0026amp;keywords=engineering+and+technology\u0026amp;page=18\u0026amp;search_tab_id=1\"\u003eFor Teacher Use\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/dd\u003e\u003cdd class=\"text-muted\"\u003e\u003ci class=\"fa-solid fa-lock mr5\"\u003e\u003c/i\u003e2 more...\u003c/dd\u003e\n\u003c/dl\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='detail'\u003e\n\u003cdl\u003e\n\u003cdt\u003eUsage Permissions\u003c/dt\u003e\u003cdd\u003eFine Print: Educational Use\u003c/dd\u003e\n\u003c/dl\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv aria-labelledby='additional-materials-heading' class='rp-info-section'\u003e\n\u003ch2 class='title' id='additional-materials-heading'\u003eAdditional Materials\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='additional-material'\u003e\n\u003ci aria-hidden='true' class='fai fa-solid fa-lock'\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\n\u003ca class=\"text-muted\" title=\"Video Transcript\" data-html=\"true\" data-placement=\"bottom\" data-trigger=\"click\" data-content=\"\u003cdiv class=\u0026quot;text-center py-2\u0026quot;\u003e\u003ca class=\u0026quot;bold\u0026quot; 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