{"page":"\u003clink rel=\"stylesheet\" href=\"https://lessonplanet.com/assets/packs/css/resources-572d6a42.css\" /\u003e\n\u003clink rel=\"stylesheet\" href=\"https://lessonplanet.com/assets/packs/css/lp_boclips_stylesheets-f4d0de30.css\" media=\"all\" /\u003e\n\u003cdiv data-title='Long term predictions for Atlantic storms' data-url='/boclips/videos/5c54bd9bd8eafeecae13555b' data-video-url='/boclips/videos/5c54bd9bd8eafeecae13555b' id='bo_player_modal'\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='boclips-resource-page modal-dialog panel-container'\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='react-notifications-root'\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='rp-header'\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='rp-type'\u003e\n\u003ci aria-hidden='true' class='fai fa-regular fa-circle-play'\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\nVideo\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003ch1 class='rp-title' id='video-title'\u003e\nLong term predictions for Atlantic storms\n\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='rp-actions'\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='mr-1'\u003e\n\u003ca class=\"btn btn-success\" data-posthog-event=\"Signup: LP Signup Activity\" data-posthog-location=\"body_link_boclips\" data-remote=\"true\" href=\"/subscription/new\"\u003e\u003cspan\u003e\u003cspan\u003eGet Free Access\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan class=\"\"\u003e for 10 Days\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan\u003e!\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/a\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='rp-body'\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='rp-info'\u003e\n\u003cdiv aria-label='Hide resource details' class='rp-hide-info' role='button' tabindex='0'\u003e\u0026times;\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003ci aria-label='Expand resource details' class='rp-expand-info fai fa-solid fa-up-right-and-down-left-from-center' role='button' tabindex='0'\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\n\u003ci aria-label='Compress resource details' class='rp-compress-info fai fa-solid fa-down-left-and-up-right-to-center' role='button' tabindex='0'\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='rp-rating'\u003e\n\u003cspan class='resource-pool'\u003e\n\u003cspan class='pool-label'\u003ePublisher:\u003c/span\u003e\n\u003cspan class='pool-name'\u003e\n\u003cspan class='text'\u003e\u003ca data-publisher-id=\"30356011\" href=\"/search?publisher_ids%5B%5D=30356011\"\u003eCurated Video\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\n\u003c/span\u003e\n\u003c/span\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv class='rp-description'\u003e\n\u003cspan class='short-description'\u003eMarco Island, Florida United States - 24 October 2005  (Hurricane Wilma)1. Wide of road Hurricane Wilma winds and rain (amateur video) 2. Various of flooded area3. Trees down close to houseDauphin Island, Alabama United States - 28...\u003c/span\u003e\n\u003cspan class='full-description hide'\u003eMarco Island, Florida United States - 24 October 2005  (Hurricane Wilma)\u003cbr/\u003e1. Wide of road Hurricane Wilma winds and rain (amateur video) \u003cbr/\u003e2. Various of flooded area\u003cbr/\u003e3. Trees down close to house\u003cbr/\u003eDauphin Island, Alabama United States - 28 August 2005 (Hurricane Katrina) \u003cbr/\u003e4. Palm trees blowing in the wind\u003cbr/\u003e5. Various of waves crashing onto road \u003cbr/\u003eLouisiana/Mississippi, United States  - 30 August 2005 (Hurricane Katrina) \u003cbr/\u003e6. Wide of people wading through water\u003cbr/\u003e7. Zoom out of flooded street\u003cbr/\u003eLondon, United Kingdom - 19 June 2007\u003cbr/\u003e8. SOUNDBITE: (English) Dr. Matt Huddleston, The Met Office\u003cbr/\u003e\"The Met Office is using its extensive climate change research, that it has used to develop global climate models, that model the full impact of the atmosphere and the oceans on seasonal timescale. And using those models we can model the number of tropical storms that are occurring over a season in the Atlantic basin.\"\u003cbr/\u003eNaples, Florida, United States - 23 October 2005 (Hurricane Wilma)\u003cbr/\u003e9. Wide of surfers walking on beach\u003cbr/\u003e10. Surfer on wave\u003cbr/\u003e11. Sandbags being placed into storefront before the arrival of Hurricane Wilma\u003cbr/\u003e12. Various of closed businesses\u003cbr/\u003eLondon, United Kingdom - 19 June 2007\u003cbr/\u003e13. SOUNDBITE: (English) Dr. Matt Huddleston, The Met Office\u003cbr/\u003e\"Climate models, are low resolution. Granularity means that the only represent scales of 300km or so. But even so, they can represent to some degree tropical storms, and the numbers of storms that are represented in the model over the season are very realistic. The forecast is being surprisingly accurate.\"\u003cbr/\u003eHonduras - 29 October 1998 (Hurricane Mitch)\u003cbr/\u003e14. Various of flooded streets after hurricane Mitch\u003cbr/\u003eLloyds of London, London, United Kingdom - 19 June 2007\u003cbr/\u003e15. SOUNDBITE: (English) Dr. Matt Huddleston, The Met Office\u003cbr/\u003e\"Well, for 2007 the climate ensemble is forecasting an average of around 10 storms from July to November. And that means there is 70% chance if it being 7-13 storms, 30% chance that it could be outside of that.\"\u003cbr/\u003eLouisiana, U.S. - 30 August 2005 (Hurricane Katrina)\u003cbr/\u003e16. Wide of people making beds\u003cbr/\u003e17. Mid of two women sitting on beds\u003cbr/\u003e18. Mid children and adults in hall\u003cbr/\u003eLondon, United Kingdom - 19 June 2007\u003cbr/\u003e19. SOUNDBITE: (english) Dr. Matt Huddleston, The Met Office\u003cbr/\u003e\"At the moment the science is not at the stage that we can predict the number of storms or landfall, and intensity. That is because more target research is needed. But we're excited by this, because it is the first time we have shown that climate models can do something really credible in terms of tropical storms, and we are going to look at landfall and the number of storms hitting and the intensity of storms at later date.\"\u003cbr/\u003eLouisiana/Mississippi, U.S. - 31 August 2005 (Hurricane Katrina)\u003cbr/\u003e20. Various of destroyed bridge after Katrina\u003cbr/\u003eLondon, United Kingdom - 19 June 2007\u003cbr/\u003e21. SOUNDBITE: (English) Dr. Matt Huddleston, The Met Office\u003cbr/\u003e\"At the moment it's not clear whether global warming is already having an impact on tropical storm numbers or their intensity. But climate change models are suggesting that they may intensify or they may be slightly fewer tropical storms in the future. Although there is still quite a debate in the community as to whether that will happen.\"\u003cbr/\u003eHonduras - 29 October 1998 (hurricane Mitch)\u003cbr/\u003e22. Various of trees being blown by wind\u003cbr/\u003eLondon, London, United Kingdom - 19 June 2007\u003cbr/\u003e23. SOUNDBITE: (English) Dr. Matt Huddleston, The Met Office\u003cbr/\u003e\"In the future we will look not just at the seasonal forecast and developing landform and intensity forecast. But we will also be looking at shorter range of what is happening in the coming months, and also the decades ahead. Many decisions in business are made five years, ten years ahead, and knowing what is going to happen in 2100 is maybe a little bit far off for decisions that need to be made, now.\"\u003cbr/\u003eLouisiana, U.S. - 30 August 2005 (Hurricane Katrina)\u003cbr/\u003e24. Various of man sitting in street covered in debris after hurricane Katrina     \u003cbr/\u003eBritish government forecasters are predicting that the Atlantic hurricane season may not be as busy as their American counterparts expect.\u003cbr/\u003eIt is most likely that 10 more tropical storms will form from July to November, British forecasters said this week. \u003cbr/\u003eAn expected cooling trend in Atlantic Ocean surface waters favours fewer tropical storms than in recent years, the British meteorologists said in their first-ever hurricane season forecast. \u003cbr/\u003eThe eastern coast of the United States and the Gulf of Mexico experienced a devastating storm season in 2005. \u003cbr/\u003eFrom Katrina to Wilma, a total of seven major hurricanes hit the region in the space of six months. \u003cbr/\u003eOn August 29, 2005, Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans and parts of the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, leaving 972 dead in Louisiana alone. \u003cbr/\u003eThe city of New Orleans was ill prepared for the deluge of water that swept over the city's defences and into the streets. \u003cbr/\u003eNow researchers in the United Kingdom are trying to predict the amount of tropical storms likely to affect the Atlantic Ocean.\u003cbr/\u003eTropical storms have the potential to develop into hurricanes when they encounter very warm and moist air, and benefit from sufficient spin from the rotation of the Earth.\u003cbr/\u003eIn 2005, tropical storm Katrina dropped just below hurricane status while passing across Florida, but once into the Gulf of Mexico rapidly regained hurricane strength.\u003cbr/\u003eKatrina was responsible for covering 80 percent of the New Orleans under water and displacing thousands of people. \u003cbr/\u003eDr. Matt Huddleston, of the United Kingdom Meteorology Office (Met Office), says they are now able to use their latest weather model to predict the number of tropical storms in the Atlantic basin in one season.\u003cbr/\u003eLater in 2005 Hurricane Wilma battered the coast of Florida in October. \u003cbr/\u003eGood news for surfers, but most people wanted to get out of town and protect their homes and businesses. \u003cbr/\u003eAccurate forecasting is important for authorities to be able to give advice to citizens and prepare emergency accommodation and supplies. \u003cbr/\u003eBy the time Wilma reached Latin America it had developed in to a Category 5 hurricane, affecting parts of Mexico, Cuba and the Cayman Islands.\u003cbr/\u003eDr. Huddleston says that although climate models only represent scales of 300 kilometres (186 miles)  they are capable of giving accurate forecasts.\u003cbr/\u003eIn 1998 a tropical depression which had formed in the Caribbean Sea evolved into hurricane Mitch.\u003cbr/\u003eMitch was responsible for winds of over 157 knots, (172 mph/ 276 kph)  and extensive rainfall in Central America.\u003cbr/\u003eHurricane Katrina made contact with the landfall of Louisiana, and caused extensive damage to home across the region.\u003cbr/\u003eHuddleston says that in 2007 the Met Office expects around 10 Atlantic tropical storms.\u003cbr/\u003eIn 2005 many of those affected by Katrina were forced to abandon their homes and shelter at makeshift accommodation centres.\u003cbr/\u003eHuddleston says that in the future they will not only be able to predict the number of storms, but also their intensity. \u003cbr/\u003eHurricane Katrina's intensity was measured at Category 5.\u003cbr/\u003eDr. Huddleston says that for the moment it is not clear if global warming is playing a role in tropical storm frequency.\u003cbr/\u003eHurricane Mitch was reportedly responsible for killing over 9,000 people in Honduras, in 1998.\u003cbr/\u003eHuddleston hopes that one day the Met Office will be able to predict storms years before they evolve.\u003cbr/\u003eThis season there is a 70 percent chance that the number of storms will be in the range of seven to 13, according to the Met office's predictions. \u003cbr/\u003eIn May, US government forecasters predicted 13 to 17 tropical storms in the season that runs from June 1 to November 30. \u003cbr/\u003eThe US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists said they expect seven to 10 tropical storms to become hurricanes and three to five of them in the strong category.\u003cbr/\u003eThe Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale is a 1 to 5 rating based on the hurricane's present intensity.\u003cbr/\u003eThe different classifications are given to estimate potential property damage and flooding.\u003cbr/\u003eClients are reminded: \u003cbr/\u003e(i) to check the terms of their licence agreements for use of content outside news programming and that further advice and assistance can be obtained from the AP Archive on: Tel +44 (0) 20 7482 7482 Email: info@aparchive.com\u003cbr/\u003e(ii) they should check with the applicable collecting society in their Territory regarding the clearance of any sound recording or performance 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